Friday Open Thread | Lawrence: Paul Manafort Raid Means ‘Probable Cause’ Crime Committed

ALTERNET: Here are some of the most significant clues about the Russia probe revealed in reporting on the Manafort raid:

The former Trump campaign chairman had been voluntarily producing documents to congressional investigators — but the search warrant indicates investigators told a federal judge they had reason to believe Manafort could not be trusted to turn over all records sought by a federal subpoena or might even destroy some of the evidence.

That suspicion alone isn’t enough to justify a search warrant. Prosecutors must persuade a judge there is probable cause to believe evidence of a crime will be found during a search. In other words, “FBI agents had to swear to their belief that fruits of a crime would be found in Manafort’s home,” former federal prosecutor Kenneth Julian told Business Insider — and the judge had to agree.

It’s not clear what crime FBI agents expected to uncover at Manafort’s home, but a New York Times report on the raid offers a clue. The search warrant seeks tax and foreign banking records — which suggests that investigators may look to charge Manafort under the federal Bank Secrecy Act requiring Americans to report their foreign bank accounts.

The wide-ranging search warrant included documents Manafort had already provided to Congress, and he also turned over 400 pages to meet an Aug. 2 deadline. But the raid prompted fears that Mueller was trying to build a case against Manafort unrelated to the campaign to pressure him into turning on other Trump associates. “(I) would add that a raid coming months into a probe when subject’s attorneys have been talking to the Department of Justice also suggests something serious,” said Matthew Miller, former communications director for the Justice Department and spokesman for former attorney general Eric Holder.

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89 Responses to Friday Open Thread | Lawrence: Paul Manafort Raid Means ‘Probable Cause’ Crime Committed

  1. rikyrah says:

    I’m not sure why NABJ is using tradition as a reason for inviting WH reps when this administration has treated black journos horribly

  2. rikyrah says:

    Mueller’s Targets Face Financial Strain

    Paul Manafort owns many homes. Mike Flynn is a right wing superstar. But the Russia probe is gobbling up their cash at an alarming rate.
    08.11.17 6:40 PM ET

    Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort parted ways with WilmerHale, the law firm defending him, earlier this week. That was largely because Bob Mueller’s 16-lawyer Russia probe—which is targeting him—has shifted its focus and is drilling down on tax issues, which aren’t WilmerHale’s specialty. But the parting of ways with WilmerHale was also in part because Manafort’s finances are increasingly strained, according to sources familiar with the situation.

    “Paul Manafort’s resolve is limitless, but his resources are not,” said a person close to Manafort.

  3. rikyrah says:

    Anne Frank Center‏Verified account @AnneFrankCenter

    More than anything else we’ve posted, we got more hate over posting #BlackLivesMatter. Let’s say it again: BLACK LIVES MATTER. In caps.

  4. Trump on Kim Jong Un: Let me hear him say it….

    OMG! This sounds like something you’d say about a kid who has said a bad word. Let me hear him say that bad word and his ass gone be mine. LOL!

  5. Omarosa walked right into that ISH. She had no business going so let the clowning begin. That’s what she gets!

  6. Folks are tearing into Omarosa’s black ass!

  7. rikyrah says:

    #BREAKING: An NRA Spokesman Just Called For North Korea To Attack A Major Liberal American City
    — Occupy Democrats (@OccupyDemocrats) August 11, 2017

  8. rikyrah says:

    There’ve been several controversial newspaper/magazine covers this week featuring Trump vs. Kim but this may be the most provocative yet.
    — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) August 11, 2017

  9. rikyrah says:


    If we had the courage, we’d admit that GOP foreign policy is nothing more than a manifestation of White male insecurity vs. a brown planet.
    — Propane Jane™ (@docrocktex26) August 11, 2017

  10. rikyrah says:

    This is a key point. Any chance of a deal with DPRK goes out the window if Trump cancels a nuclear deal that Iran is complying with.
    — Ben Rhodes (@brhodes) August 10, 2017

  11. rikyrah says:

    Excited to partner with @googlearts to share the stories of African American fashion designers: #WeWearCulture
    — Smithsonian NMAAHC (@NMAAHC) August 11, 2017

  12. rikyrah says:

    NEW: 78% of the public, including 52% of Republicans, want the Trump administration to make the #ACA work
    — Kaiser Family Found (@KaiserFamFound) August 11, 2017

  13. rikyrah says:

    Republicans lose election to Dem: Try to recall her.
    Republicans lose senator to Dem caucus: Try to recall her.
    Welcome to the new world.
    — Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) August 11, 2017

  14. rikyrah says:

    Trump admin bypassing Democratic senators on judicial nominations. Hugely consequential, underreported story
    — Ari Berman (@AriBerman) August 11, 2017

  15. rikyrah says:

    OFA targets vulnerable Republicans with a new grassroots project
    — CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) August 11, 2017

  16. rikyrah says:

    Christina Wilkie‏Verified account @ christinawilkie 24h24 hours ago
    Ivanka Trump leading the US del. to Global Entrepreneurship Summit is an insult to entrepreneurs. She’s worked for her dad her whole life.

    Bobby Ghosh‏Verified account @ ghoshworld 14h14 hours ago
    India diplomat tells me: “We regard @ IvankaTrump the way we do half-wit Saudi princes. It’s in our national interest to flatter them.”
    The diplomat added: “Yes, it is a shame that the US should be compared to a kingdom. But that is America’s shame, not Modi’s, or India’s.”Bobby Ghosh added,

  17. rikyrah says:

    Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) initially said he opposed the Senate’s Obamacare repeal efforts, voted for it anyway — and now claims he’s glad it was defeated.

    In a video published by liberal super PAC American Bridge, Heller claims he’s happy with the outcome of the bill’s defeat — glossing over the fact that he voted for the bill himself.

    “I obviously got in the middle of this healthcare battle,” Heller said, “and I feel real pleased with the way this thing turned out.”

    He concluded the short statement by saying, with a smile, that Republicans are now “turning the page to tax reform.”

    Uh huh
    No way, muthaphucka.
    That vote is going to be tied around your neck like an anvil.

  18. rikyrah says:

    Dear Bob Mueller,
    We know you’re thorough, meticulous, and cautious.
    But if you could speed it up, we’d appreciate it.
    -The World

    — Holly O’Reilly (@AynRandPaulRyan) August 11, 2017

  19. No it isn’t. This is not normal. It’s lunacy. And that is why this creature from hell needs to be removed from office.

  20. rikyrah says:

    From Nancy L over at Washington Monthly in her round up column:

    * Over at the Weekly Standard, Michael Warren is wondering whether the president is preparing to ditch the Republican Party.

    Trump has been building the case against his fellow Republicans for some time, but it came to a head late last month as Obamacare repeal began its path in the Senate. “Republicans in the Senate will NEVER win if they don’t go to a 51 vote majority NOW. They look like fools and are just wasting time,” he tweeted on July 29. “If the Senate Democrats ever got the chance, they would switch to a 51 majority vote in first minute. They are laughing at R’s. MAKE CHANGE!” Then, a few days later, he blamed the “all-time & very dangerous low” relations with Russia on Congress, “the same people that can’t even give us HCare!”

    Trump’s short-term target was the filibuster and its most important defender, Mitch McConnell. But the beginnings of the broader argument against the GOP are all right there, in 140 characters at a time. Republicans are fools, they’re impotent, and everyone’s laughing at them.

    • Liza says:

      From the article:

      “Shelby was sworn in by the RCSO during a live press conference Thursday morning surrounded by Sheriff Scott Walton, county officials and well-wishers. The county doesn’t usually hold press conferences for swearing-in ceremonies, but because of the high profile of Shelby’s case and Walton’s vociferous support of her during her trial, Rogers County apparently thought it necessary to flaunt the fact that it was hiring a cold-blooded killer, because … fuck Terence Crutcher.”

    • rikyrah says:


    • Liza says:

      This makes me so angry.

      • rikyrah says:

        these people are evil

      • majiir says:

        I can’t recall the number of times I bought lunches for students when I was in the classroom. It wasn’t important to me who they were but that they were hungry and knew if they asked me for help, I’d buy lunches for them. In return, God has blessed me. I’m retired now and have no problems paying any of my bills. Those who would deny kids food are among the vilest persons on the planet. Kids can’t get any more than what adults give them.

  21. rikyrah says:

    Column argues Obama daughters subjected to ‘higher standard’ than Trump children
    Aug 10th 2017 11:46PM

    A Marie Claire opinion column argues that the public holds “Sasha and Malia Obama to a Higher Standard Than the Trump Children, and That’s Ridiculous.”

    The op-ed, written by contributing editor Jessica Valenti, states that “[The girls] had to grow up watching their parents be unfairly attacked and sustained a childhood of public criticism themselves.”

    For example, in December 2014, a Republican staffer reportedly stepped down from her job at a Tennessee Congressman’s office after she wrote a harsh Facebook post saying the girls should “try showing a little class,” after their attendance at the annual White House turkey pardoning ceremony.

    Valenti also says the girls are “still attacked today for doing completely mundane things that are expected rites of passage.”

    The piece points to a recent Daily Beast report describing the online criticisms the sisters have sustained over attending parties and festivals and taking part in other teenage activities.

    Meanwhile, Valenti points to the controversies the Trump children have been linked to, including, “Don Jr. and Russia or Ivanka and her faux-feminist brand built on sketchy labor practices.”

    Conservative groups have argued just the opposite. Sean Hannity stated on his radio show in January, “we conservatives left the Obama daughters alone.”

    And in a column for the National Review the prior month, Christian Toto maintained, “No clear-thinking conservative attacked Barack and Michelle Obama’s children over the last eight years.”

  22. Liza says:

    UPDATED AUG. 11, 2017 AT 10:08 AM
    How popular/unpopular is Donald Trump?

    An updating calculation of the president’s approval rating, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean. How this works »

  23. Ametia says:


  24. rikyrah says:

    UH HUH
    UH HUH

    Trump’s D.C. hotel turned a $2,000,000 profit in 4 months, “dramatically beating its expectations.”

    — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 11, 2017

    Remarkable: @trump hotel is emptier than most D.C. hotels, but still makes buckets of $ b/c it’s prices are so high.

    — David Fahrenthold (@Fahrenthold) August 11, 2017

  25. rikyrah says:

    So many amazing women, including a number of women of color, running for office in 2018!

    — Joy Reid (@JoyAnnReid) August 11, 2017

    “I am running for governor because I am worried my daughter will not have the same opportunities my parents gave…

    — Citizens Rise (@Citizens_Rise) August 11, 2017

  26. rikyrah says:

    Married ex-Trump aide admits he fathered a child with staffer during campaign

    — The Hill (@thehill) August 10, 2017

  27. Liza says:

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 3h3 hours ago

    Military solutions are now fully in place,locked and loaded,should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong Un will find another path!

  28. rikyrah says:

    Poll: Most Say Time To End Effort To Repeal Obama Health Law

    — Newsradio 1020 KDKA (@KDKARadio) August 11, 2017

  29. rikyrah says:

    Alabama’s Moore suggests US may be ‘the focus of evil’ in the world
    08/11/17 10:12 AM
    By Steve Benen

    Republican voters in Alabama will head to the polls on Tuesday to vote in a U.S. Senate primary, and it’s proving to be a tough race to predict. Sen. Luther Strange (R) has the baggage that comes with having been appointed by a disgraced former governor who had to resign, but Strange has the benefit of support from Donald Trump, the NRA, and the Republican establishment.

    Rep. Mo Brooks, meanwhile, is in contention, running on an anti-establishment, pro-border-wall platform, but recent polling suggests it’s former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, twice removed from the bench for ethics violations, who may be the candidate to watch next week.

    It’s against this backdrop that Moore sat down with The Guardian, where the Alabama Republican suggested he isn’t impressed with America’s moral standing.

    In an interview with the Guardian’s Anywhere But Washington series, Moore also said that Ronald Reagan’s famous declaration about the Soviet Union being “the focus of evil in the modern world” might today be applied to the US.

    “You could say that very well about America, couldn’t you?” he said. “We promote a lot of bad things.”

  30. rikyrah says:

    Trump believes his CIA director, but only to a point
    08/11/17 09:20 AM—UPDATED 08/11/17 09:30 AM
    By Steve Benen

    Even before he became president, Donald Trump went out of his way to dismiss U.S. intelligence assessments he found politically inconvenient. That’s continued throughout 2017: the more intelligence professionals tell him Russia attacked the American election to help put him in office, the more Trump tells the public he’s more inclined to believe Vladimir Putin.

    All of which led to a good question for the president yesterday: if Trump has so many doubts about the findings of the U.S. intelligence agencies, how reliable is the intelligence now as it relates to North Korea? The president responded:

    “Well, you know, it’s different intelligence. I have Mike Pompeo. I have great confidence in him. That doesn’t mean I had confidence in his predecessor. OK? Which I didn’t, actually, although – although he did say good things about me. He did say he had no information or know anything on collusion. So I shouldn’t maybe say that, but I will say it.

    “But I have tremendous confidence in Mike Pompeo, Dan Coats – fantastic. I mean, we have – we have people.”

    If we cut through the strange nonsense, what Trump was apparently trying to say was that things are different now. He didn’t believe intelligence assessments before, but now that Mike Pompeo is the director of the CIA, Trump can finally have confidence in the information presented to him.

    In other words, if Mike Pompeo gives the president information about the North Korean threat, Trump is going to believe it.

    And that’s fine, although it raises a related question: if Pompeo gives the president information about Russia, Trump is going to believe that, too?

  31. rikyrah says:

    Lawrence: Trump’s ultimate act of appeasement of Putin
    It took Donald Trump nearly two weeks to speak about Putin’s order to expel 755 Americans from the U.S. embassy in Moscow. Instead of condemning the act, Trump thanked Putin for helping “cut our payroll” and again criticized the special counsel’s investigation.

  32. Liza says:

    This is so cool. Enter your zip code to see how the eclipse will look where you are.

    A solar eclipse is coming to America. Here’s what you’ll see where you live.
    Updated by Casey Miller, Ryan Mark, and Brian Resnick Jul 25, 2017, 7:50am EDT

  33. rikyrah says:

    Four senior cybersecurity officials are stepping down from their US government positions, raising concerns that an exodus of top leaders may make the federal government more vulnerable to hacking.

    Two of those resigning – Sean Kelley, the chief information security officer for the Environmental Protection Agency, and Richard Staropoli, the chief information officer for the Department of Homeland Security – had been in their jobs for just a few months.

    The other two, Rob Foster, the Navy’s chief information officer, and Dave DeVries, the director of information security and privacy at the Office of Personnel Management, are departing agencies for which computer security is a top priority. DeVries assumed his job shortly after the OPM suffered the largest known cyberattack in federal government history, and Foster had served in similar positions at the Department of Health and Human Services and Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

    Ann Dunkin, the CIO of the EPA under President Barack Obama who was asked to leave by Trump’s transition team and now holds the same title for Santa Clara County, California, told BuzzFeed News that four executives leaving in such a short time raised red flags.

    “There appears to be a concerted effort to remove the career CIOs who were there during the Obama administration,” Dunkin said. “During the last week we’ve seen four go? That smells.”

  34. rikyrah says:

    As Leader McConnell this AM reads Trump Twitter, I wonder how he feels now about blocking action against Russian election interference?

    — David Frum (@davidfrum) August 11, 2017

  35. rikyrah says:

    Manafort changes legal team as investigation intensifies
    Rachel Maddow reports on former Donald Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort changing his legal team and adding a lawyer whose areas of specialty paint a stark picture of Manafort’s legal concerns.

    Prosecutors taking close look at Manafort financial records
    Greg Farrell, investigative reporter for Bloomberg News, talks with Rachel Maddow about Trump-Russia investigators looking into former Donald Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort’s financial records and what that might mean to the investigation broadly

  36. rikyrah says:

    Maddow makes a good point about this….how come no more corroboration on this NK story?
    All this bullshyt from an agency that was dismissed just a few years ago.

    Trump North Korea frenzy curiously timed
    Rachel Maddow explains why this week’s frantic bellicosity from Donald Trump toward North Korea does not seem to have had a distinct trigger.

    Trump team message on North Korea muddled, chaotic
    Rachel Maddow shows the contrasting messaging from different members of the Trump team in how they’re speaking about the potential threat from North Korea.

    Trump incoherence on N Korea risks dangerous miscommunication
    Sue Mi Terry, former NSC senior analyst on North Korea, talks with Rachel Maddow about the intelligence on North Korea’s military capability and why it is dangerous that the Trump administration is not able to deliver a clear policy message on North Korea.

  37. rikyrah says:

    TREASON against this country.

    ,As Russia expels U.S. diplomats, Trump publicly thanks Putin
    08/11/17 08:00 AM—UPDATED 08/11/17 08:06 AM
    By Steve Benen
    There’s an expression in Trump World that the president and his allies are fond of: if you attack Donald Trump, he will punch back 10 times harder. It’s a maxim that helps explain why the president tends to get a little hysterical in response to so many perceived slights.

    But for Trump, the principal applies only to him personally: the president can’t tolerate rebukes that target him, but affronts to the United States, in Trump’s mind, are surprisingly acceptable.

    Two weeks ago, in response to new economic sanctions approved by Congress, Vladimir Putin’s Russian government announced it was expelling 755 people from the American embassy and consulate staff. It was a striking diplomatic move, and an escalation of tensions between the two countries, which seemed to warrant a stern White House response.

    Trump, however, remained silent – until yesterday.

    QUESTION: Mr. President, do you have any response to the Russian president expelling 755 workers from our embassy in Russia?

    TRUMP: No, I want to thank [Putin], because we’re trying to cut down on payroll. And as far as I’m concerned, I’m very thankful that he let go of a large number of people because now we have a smaller payroll. There’s no real reason for them to go back. So, I greatly appreciate the fact that they’ve been able to cut our payroll for the United States. We’ll save a lot of money.


    But that’s really not what’s important here. Rather, this is a dynamic in which the Putin government used harsh diplomatic measures to slap the United States in the face, and after two weeks of thought, the American president expressed his gratitude to the Russian government.

    Even the most mindless Republican partisans should find this impossible to defend.

    Nicholas Burns, the State Department’s third-ranking official in the Bush/Cheney administration, told Reuters Trump’s comments were “grotesque.” Burns, now a Harvard professor, added, “If he was joking, he should know better. If he wasn’t, it’s unprecedented. A president has never defended the expulsion of our diplomats.”

    The same article quoted a veteran U.S. diplomat saying the State Department has been “horrified and rattled” by Trump’s remarks.

    A Politico piece added:

    A senior U.S. diplomat serving overseas called Trump’s remarks “outrageous” and said it could lead more State Department staffers to head for the exits.

    “This is so incredibly demoralizing and disrespectful to people serving their country in harm’s way,” the diplomat said.

    “I kid you not, I have heard from three different people in the last five minutes,” one State Department official told POLITICO shortly after Trump’s comments. “Everyone seems pretty amazed. This statement is naive and shortsighted. It sends a terrible signal to local employees everywhere.”

    “THANK Putin?” another bewildered State Department official responded. “I don’t have words that are printable to describe my reaction.”

  38. rikyrah says:

    West Virginia’s governor pitches Trump on a coal bailout
    08/11/17 08:40 AM
    By Steve Benen

    West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice was a Republican, then became a Democrat, only to reverse course again last week to become a Republican again – though the timing of his decision seemed odd. At face value, he didn’t appear to have a reason to switch to the GOP so soon after winning statewide office as a Dem.

    This week, however, the motivation seems a little clearer. The Washington Post reported:

    Jim Justice, the born-again Republican governor of West Virginia, is floating a federal proposal to bail out the struggling Appalachian coal industry at a cost to taxpayers of up to $4.5 billion a year.

    As Justice described it to the Wall Street Journal, under the proposal, the federal government would pay out $15 to eastern power companies for each ton of Appalachian coal they purchase.

  39. rikyrah says:

    Message Failure From Nina Turner and Our Revolution
    by Nancy LeTourneau
    August 10, 2017

    Nina Turner, president of Our Revolution (the advocacy group formed by Bernie Sanders), used some words to describe the Democratic National Committee, as Buzzfeed first reported: “Dictatorial.” “Arrogant.” “Pompous.” “Superficial.” “Tone-deaf.” “Tone-dead.” “Out of line.” “Insulting” — “absolutely insulting.”

    What brought that on? Turner and a group of supporters went to the DNC headquarters in Washington to deliver petitions in support of the “People’s Platform” in response to the Democratic announcement of their plan for “A Better Deal.” The group was met by barricades as well as donuts and water that had been prepared for them by DNC staff as a token of goodwill. The barricades were protocol set up by the building’s security team, not party officials. Here are some of the sentences in which Turner used those words cited up above:


    In other words, it was all more of a childish temper tantrum than a thoughtful political message.

    As a result of that little outburst from Turner, the media isn’t writing about what’s included in the People’s Platform as compared to the Democrat’s Better Deal. It’s all about yet another heated exchange from Sanders supporters directed at the Democratic Party.

    It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out who benefits from that: Republicans. Karl Rove noticed and is eagerly pointing out the rift.

    I thought it would be helpful to do what Turner failed to do—compare and contrast the two agendas. The People’s Platform includes eight items. Here they are, with notations of similar proposals in A Better Deal:

    1. Medicare for all –> Lower cost of prescription drugs
    2. Free college tuition –> Lower cost of college and technical education
    3. Worker’s rights ($15 minimum wage) –> Living wage minimum at $15/hr
    4. Women’s rights (access to abortion) –> Not explicitly listed
    5. Voting rights –> Not explicitly listed
    6 Environmental justice –> Not explicitly listed
    7. Criminal justice reform and immigrant rights –> Not explicitly listed
    8. Taxing Wall Street –> Crack down on monopolies and end tax breaks for outsourcers

    What we can see from this list is that it is actually the Democrats who haven’t included items like women’s rights, voting rights, criminal justice reform and environmental justice in their Better Deal. While the vast majority of Democrats support those issues, it is interesting to note that they were not included.

  40. rikyrah says:

    I will continue to say this..
    1. Pence is up to his eyeballs in the Flynn mess
    2. The thought that Dolt45 will go down WITHOUT dragging PENCE with him?
    Delusional on Pence’s part. Dolt45 will NEVER take one for the team. And, if he’s going down..EVERYBODY IS.

    Is Mike Pence the “Deep State” That Trump Fears?
    The vice president is clearly planning for a post-Trump presidency. But is he also trying to accelerate Trump’s demise?
    August 10, 2017

  41. rikyrah says:

    Good Morning, Everyone 😄😄😄

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