Open Thread | About That Iranian Oil….and The Strait of Hormuz

Posted on March 2, 2026 by rikyrah

Law of unintended consequences?
And, there are always a lot of players in GeoPolitics. Some we may never think of.

Shanaka Anslem Perera
@shanaka86

Twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Today the number may be zero. Not because Iran mined the water. Not because a tanker was hit. Because Lloyd’s of London picked up the phone.
War risk underwriters began canceling policies for strait transits hours after Operation Epic Fury launched. The Financial Times confirmed premiums surging 50 percent. Baseline war risk sits at 0.25 percent of hull value. For a hundred million dollar tanker that is 250,000 dollars per voyage.

At peak escalation rates, one million per transit. Vessels linked to American or Israeli interests are becoming uninsurable entirely. No price. No policy. No passage. The KHK Empress was loaded with Omani crude heading for Basra when it executed a U-turn mid-strait and redirected to India. The Eagle Veracruz halted at the western approach carrying two million barrels of Saudi crude bound for China. The Front Shanghai stopped off Sharjah with Iraqi crude destined for Rotterdam. Nippon Yusen ordered its entire fleet to avoid Hormuz. Greece told its merchant armada to reassess passage. Hapag-Lloyd suspended all transits.

None of them were fired upon. Every one of them got the same call. More than fifty million years ago the Arabian plate collided with the Eurasian plate and compressed the Persian Gulf into a basin that drains through a single geological bottleneck twenty one miles wide. Twenty one percent of global petroleum. Twenty percent of all seaborne LNG. One fifth of industrial civilization’s energy supply forced through a tectonic accident narrower than the English Channel, bordered on one side by the country whose supreme leader was killed yesterday morning. The USS Abraham Lincoln carries enough Tomahawks to sink every IRGC patrol boat in 48 hours. Operation Praying Mantis crippled Iran’s operational naval forces in eight hours in 1988. The Fifth Fleet has rehearsed this scenario for decades.

None of that matters. Aircraft carriers cannot force an underwriter to rewrite a policy. Tomahawks cannot lower a premium. The most powerful navy in human history cannot make a Lloyd’s syndicate decide that a VLCC transiting Iranian coastal waters represents an acceptable risk on a Saturday afternoon when missiles are landing in Dubai. Goldman Sachs estimates Brent could peak at 110 dollars per barrel. JP Morgan projects 120 to 130. At those levels every airline bleeds cash. Every central bank watches three years of inflation fighting reignite overnight. Bypass pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE handle roughly three million barrels. Hormuz handles twenty million. The math does not close.

Iran figured out something the Pentagon still has not.
You do not need to close a strait. You just need to make it uninsurable.
https://open.substack.com/pub/shanakaanslemperera/p/the-arithmetic-of-collapse-irans?r=6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2027936080541131106?s=20

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Posted in Breaking News, Economics, Foreign policy, Open Thread, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Weekend Open Thread

Posted on February 28, 2026 by rikyrah

Good Morning. I hope that you are enjoying this weekend, fully vaccinated and boosted, with family and friends. That new booster shot has been approved..be sure to get it. Call and see if your pharmacy has it.

Order your free COVID Tests., if you still can.

RIP, Neil Sedaka

Variety
@Variety
Neil Sedaka, the legendary singer-songwriter behind hits like “Breaking Up Is Hard to Do,” “Bad Blood,” “Laughter in the Rain” and “Calendar Girl,” has died at 86 years old.

“Our family is devastated by the sudden passing of our beloved husband, father and grandfather, Neil Sedaka,” a statement from the family reads. “A true rock and roll legend, an inspiration to millions, but most importantly, at least to those of us who were lucky enough to know him, an incredible human being who will be deeply missed.”

https://variety.com/2026/music/news/neil-sedaka-dead-singer-songwriter-breaking-up-is-hard-to-do-1236675098/

Posted in Weekend Open Thread | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Open Thread | Trump’s Epic Loss on Tariffs Is Even Worse for Him Than You Think

Posted on February 27, 2026 by rikyrah

I have believed for some time that they know they are on the clock. Which is why you will see them ramp their evil 100 fold.

The ICE brutality isn’t working, because those Blue cities are fighting back, each and everytime.
Also, it’s not working in an overall strategy to use them to impose Martial Law, because the Black community has not been out in the streets protesting. The core of their brutality scheme was to have the visuals of those Law Enforcement Agencies , those with COMPLETE IMMUNITY, beating on Black protesters. The Black people that have always been the perfect ‘ OTHER’ for the MAGA/GOP.

Black people resting isn’t just right for us, spiritually. It’s also strategy. Denying this government the visuals that they have been desiring since January 2025. They have continued to try and bait Black Americans out into the street, and we continue to ignore the bait, which is why they have become more obvious and desperate.

The Democrats, for the November 2026 Elections, need to run on not only the lawlessness and abuse of ICE and DHS, but, the absolute CORRUPTION, UP AND DOWN.
And, they need to link the AFFORDABILITY issue to both.

Trump’s Epic Loss on Tariffs Is Even Worse for Him Than You Think
The Supreme Court’s stunning invalidation of most of the president’s tariffs is another sign that Trumpist populist nationalism is in crisis.
Greg Sargent
February 20, 2026

The Supreme Court’s stunning decision invalidating Donald Trump’s tariffs isn’t just a major legal setback, though it certainly is that. The loss before the high court is also another sign that the pillars of Trump’s right-wing nationalist agenda are crumbling in a much broader and deeper sense—so much so that it’s posing a serious threat to the long-term durability of the ideology known as Trumpism.

If you had to name the two most essential pillars of Trumpian populist nationalism, you’d probably single out his sweeping tariffs and his campaign to deport all undocumented immigrants. The tariffs are supposed to unleash a domestic manufacturing renaissance, and the mass expulsions are designed to ethnically and culturally purify the nation. Together they make up much of the foundation of Trumpism’s fantasy version of nationalist renewal.

Both of those are now in crisis. The tariffs have been broadly invalidated. And in the aftermath of ICE’s invasion of Minneapolis, the deportations of noncriminal undocumented immigrants—while still proceeding—have been widely discredited in the minds of all but the molten MAGA core, and face determined resistance all across American culture and society.

The Supreme Court’s 6–3 decision is sweeping. Trump claimed extraordinarily broad tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, citing its grant of authority to “regulate … importation.” But as the majority notes, that simply does not constitute an authority to tax—the statute doesn’t even include the word “tariffs.”

The ruling authored by Chief Justice John Roberts is scathing on this point. It declares that Trump read “regulate” and “importation” to somehow grant him “the independent power to impose tariffs on imports from any country, of any product, at any rate, for any amount of time.” It concludes that “regulate” and “importation” are words that “cannot bear such weight.”

Posted in 2026 Elections, Breaking News, Current Events, Open Thread, Politics, Tariffs | Tagged , , , , , | 11 Comments

Open Thread | About What Happened At the BAFTA Awards….An Essay..

Posted on February 25, 2026 by rikyrah

Thought this essay was on point.

Impact, not intent
Posted by Liberal Librarian
February 24, 2026

If you’ve been on social media for the past two days, you know what happened at the BAFTA awards on Sunday. As Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo were onstage presenting an award, John Davidson, a man with Tourette’s syndrome whose life story was the subject of a nominated film, screamed out the N-word. Not a one-off, he also uttered the slur twice more at other Black artists. During the show, host Alan Cumming thanked the audience for “understanding” Mr. Davidson’s outburst.

Both BAFTA and the BBC, the broadcaster for the evening in the UK, made dutiful, boilerplate apologies. Mr. Davidson issued a statement saying he was “mortified” that people would think his outburst was who he was.

In all this, all the attention and care were aimed at John Davidson. He was the one who had to be consoled. He was the one who had to be assured that he’d done nothing wrong. He couldn’t help it. It was involuntary. Not once were Mr. Jordan or Mr. Lindo considered. No, of course not. They had to “rise above it”, like latter-day Jackie Robinsons, for the greater good.

I observed the oncoming storm on social media. What I saw was mostly white commenters excusing Mr. Davidson, with increasing vitriol, to the point where they labeled anyone countering them as “ableist”. I saw comments saying that Mr. Davidson did not need to apologize to anyone; to do so would be to apologize for being who he was. Again, all the care and concern from these commenters were aimed at Mr. Davidson. None was shown to Messrs Jordan and Lindo.

…………………………………………………

But his intent is not the issue for me. For me it is the impact his outburst had, not only on Messrs Jordan and Lindo, but on Black people in general. For me the issue is how certain segments rushed to defend Mr. Davidson, while absolutely downplaying the impact of his uttering that word. Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo were ciphers in this drama, mere stage scenery to Mr. Davidson’s bravery for not hiding away from the world and being at British film’s golden night. They could have been any two Black men; anyone will do. Society treats Black pain as insignificant. Society will always favor another marginalized community over Black hurt. This is in full bloom in this incident.

This is the final week of Black History Month in the United States, and it is very illuminating that this event occurred during this month. Mr. Davidson’s defenders stripped him of all agency, depicting him as a helpless disabled man who cannot possibly be held to account for his actions. Meanwhile they demanded that Messrs Jordan and Lindo take the high road and not react. As Mr. Lindo told Vanity Fair afterwards, he and Mr. Jordan “did what they had to do” to get through the segment. How many countless Black people have said the same thing? How many countless Black people have had to swallow and carry on so as to not jeopardize themselves? This is why Black people are not out on the streets; why should they trust that “allies” will be there to back them up, rather than using them as cannon fodder? We’re seeing this in real time with Representative Jasmine Crockett’s bid for the Senate seat in Texas: white liberals went from “Go Jasmine!!” to “She can’t win, she’s divisive, I’d vote for a Black woman just not her.” Black people simply cannot count on any one group being an ally; allyship is always conditional, to be withdrawn just at the moment when it is most needed.

……………………………………

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Posted in Entertainment, Open Thread, Racism | Tagged , , , , , | 14 Comments

Open Thread | Even Though The Supreme Court Got It Right on Tariffs….Do They Deserve a Cookie for Doing the Right Thing?

Posted on February 23, 2026 by rikyrah

Yes, the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s Tariffs, but, do they deserve a cookie for doing the right thing?
Josh Marshall Says Absolutely Not.

Don’t Be Fooled By the Corrupt Court’s Tariff Decision
02.20.26 | 11:40 am

The depth of the Supreme Court’s corruption has forced us to find new language to describe its actions. Today’s decision, undoing Trump’s massive array of tariffs that upended the global financial system, is a case in point.

We say the Court “struck down” these tariffs. But that wording is inadequate and misleading. These tariffs were always transparently illegal. Saying the actions were “struck down” suggests at least a notional logic which the Court disagreed with, or perhaps one form of standing practice and constitutional understanding away from which the Court decided to chart another course. Neither is remotely the case. There’s no ambiguity in the law in question. Trump assumed a unilateral power to “find” a national emergency and then used this (transparently fraudulent) national emergency to exercise powers the law in question doesn’t even delegate. It is, among other things, an example of the central tenet of current conservative jurisprudence: to determine what law or constitution would require if words had no meaning. We could go into the further digression over whether Congress could “delegate” such powers, given the Constitution’s clarity on congressional authority over tariffs or whether any purported ambiguity in the law invokes yet another of the corrupt Court’s made-up doctrines. But doing so would be nothing more than ceding to the Court an authority to compel us to expend time exploring the vaporous logical intricacies of its bullshit doctrines.

It’s tempting to see this decision as some big win. And it is a win to the extent that it’s better that a rogue president be barred from illegal acts than permitted to continue them. But it’s a mistake to imagine that the Court is any less corrupt on the evidence of this decision.

This is a case where the legal merits of the President’s action were just too transparently bogus even for this Court to manage and — critically — his actions and the theories undergirding his claims to the power were, for the Corrupt majority, inconvenient. The architect of the current Court — the Federalist Society’s Leonard Leo — was behind the litigation that undid the tariffs. That tells you all you need to know. In this case Trump’s claim to power was neither in the interests of the Republican Party — the Court’s chief jurisprudential interest — nor any of their anti-constitutional doctrines. So of course they tossed it out. This may sound ungenerous. It’s simple reality.
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Posted in Breaking News, Chief Justice John Roberts, Corruption, Economics, Open Thread, Politics, Supreme Court | Tagged , , , , , | 31 Comments

Weekend Open Thread

Posted on February 21, 2026 by rikyrah

Good Morning. I hope that you are enjoying this weekend, fully vaccinated and boosted, with family and friends. That new booster shot has been approved..be sure to get it. Call and see if your pharmacy has it.

Order your free COVID Tests., if you still can.

Alysa Liu won the GOLD in Women’s Figure Skating.
The first medal for an American woman since 2006.
Last American woman to win the Gold was Sarah Hughes in 2002- before Liu was even born.

Posted in Olympics, Weekend Open Thread | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Open Thread | Heritage Foundation report suggests ‘marriage camps,’ sparking outcry

Posted on February 20, 2026 by rikyrah

YA THINK?

This is all about control.
This is about stripping women of their autonomy.

Funny, how none of their solutions include things like..
Free Daycare
Paid Maternal and Paternal leave for the first year of the child
Subsidies for extracurricular activities for children
Plans to help parents get a better work/life balance, so that they could spend more meaningful time with the family
Making things AFFORDABLE so that people believe that they can AFFORD to have a child
Supporting more higher educational opportunities, instead of the Department of Education, attempting to reclassify entire groups of jobs that are dominated by women as ‘ non-professional’, thus limiting the financial resources of women to get into said professions.

Heritage Foundation report suggests ‘marriage camps,’ sparking outcry
Kate PerezKate Perez
USA TODAY
Updated Feb. 11, 2026, 3:35 p.m. ET

Social media users are denouncing the idea of “marriage bootcamps” as “ridiculous” and “demographic control” online after an unadopted policy plan from the conservative think tank that helped create Project 2025 proposed the camps as a way to boost birthrates.

The online report, titled “Saving America by Saving the Family: A Foundation for the Next 250 Years,” published Jan. 8 by The Heritage Foundation, lays out ways the group says the United States can “restore the family home,” including through monetarily incentivizing couples to have children and stay married, among other efforts.

The report has since drawn some criticism online, much of it aimed at the “marriage bootcamps” outlined in the plan that would end with people who participated in the program taking part in a communal wedding.

What’s in the Heritage Foundation report? Call for more marriage, babies.
In its report, the Heritage Foundation calls on the Trump administration and Congress to consider a plethora of proposed actions that they say would help reverse the declining birth rate in the United States, which they call “America’s family crisis.”

🤔🤔🤔

And for those who say that we are being hysterical and melodramatic….

You said the same thing to us about Project 2025, and we see how that turned out.😒😒🙄🙄

Posted in Open Thread, Politics | Tagged , , , | 27 Comments

Open Thread | What Will Be the Democrats Next Move on Immigration?

Posted on February 18, 2026 by rikyrah

I know that I am out there. I am a consistent Democratic Party base voter.
I have had it with ICE. It’s got to go. It is a rogue organization, made up of low-rent hires, that has been allowed to terrorize people in American cities. The cruelty and atrocities – they have not earned the benefit of the doubt.

But, I realize that my position on them, can be seen as that far end. So, I’m not going to condemn Democrats who aren’t willing to go as far as I am, just as long as they are willing to commit to what they believe would be serious reforms.

Greg Sargent has been thinking on this topic:

‪Greg Sargent‬
‪@gregsargent.bsky.social‬
· 4h
The extraordinary courage of people who are documenting ICE atrocities in places like Minneapolis, at great personal risk, are also achieving something else: They’re changing the public’s mind about immigration. We have a rare opportunity here. 1/

(new piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2059…

Greg Sargent‬
‪@gregsargent.bsky.social‬
· 4h
To this day, reporters marvel at GOP governors who bussed migrants to cities. But JB Pritzker and Gavin Newsom have flipped the script: By encouraging people to document ICE atrocities, they’ve helped create the basis for a revitalized opposition politics. 2/

Greg Sargent‬
‪@gregsargent.bsky.social‬
· 4h
JB Pritzker’s chief of staff tells us that people appalled by ICE brutality badly wanted to join the fight. So Pritzker encouraged people to start recording. This takes seriously the role of information warfare in the age of Trump, enlisting ordinary people in it. 3/

Greg Sargent

‪@gregsargent.bsky.social‬

Follow
Behind all this is a deeper argument among Dems over how persuasion really works: The consultant class theory versus those who argue that the consultants are not seriously reckoning with the scale of today’s information challenges.

I try to lay this out here. 4/

Greg Sargent‬
‪@gregsargent.bsky.social‬
· 4h
I think the events of the last year strongly favor taking the state of the info environment more seriously. When ordinary people and elected Dems drew attention to some of the worst Trump/Miller atrocities, Trump’s approval on immigration fell, and kept falling. 5/

Greg Sargent

‪@gregsargent.bsky.social‬

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Polls that ask respondents if they support deporting people with jobs/no criminal records show solid majority opposition. My theory is that all the attention to ICE has sharpened the distinction in people’s minds between removing criminals vs noncriminals. 6/

Greg Sargent‬
‪@gregsargent.bsky.social‬
· 4h
I think it’s also time to revisit the theory of those who interpreted Trump’s 2024 win as evidence of a durable cultural turn against immigrants, a theory associated with David Leonhardt. Much of what we’re seeing now badly complicates that theory. 7/

‪Greg Sargent‬
‪@gregsargent.bsky.social‬
· 3h
This theory holds that most Americans agree that Trump was *in some sense right* about the ill social/cultural impacts of immigration. I think it’s clear now that majorities do not share this view. So let’s revisit the theory and come up with something better. 8/

Greg Sargent

‪@gregsargent.bsky.social‬

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MAGA worldview holds that immigrants threaten national “social solidarity,” as JD Vance put it to Douthat. Trump’s win persuaded some that majorities see it that way. But polls and the events of the last year suggest majorities reject that basic understanding. 9/

‪Greg Sargent‬
‪@gregsargent.bsky.social‬
· 3h
I say ICE horror has awakened people’s awareness of their social/econ ties to immigrants. That gives Ds an opening to restate case for path to legalization+making legal immigration easier+plus asylum/enforcement concessions.

This piece suggests a way to do it. 10/
https://bsky.app/profile/gregsargent.bsky.social/post/3meqyko6d5c2o

Here is the link to the complete article.

Posted in Breaking News, Democratic Party, Elections, ICEgov, Open Thread, Politics | Tagged , , , , , | 29 Comments

Rev. Jesse L. Jackson – Dead at 84

Posted on February 17, 2026 by rikyrah

Rev. Jesse Jackson has passed away.

The New York Times

‪@nytimes.com‬

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Breaking News: The Rev. Jesse Jackson, whose fiery speeches and populist vision made him a charismatic champion of civil rights, died at 84.
https://bsky.app/profile/nytimes.com/post/3mf2ccc265k2q

The Rev. Jesse Jackson, pioneering civil rights activist and racial ‘pathfinder,’ dies at 84
By

John Blake and Alex Stambaugh

The Rev. Jesse Louis Jackson, the towering civil rights leader whose moral vision and fiery oratory reshaped the Democratic Party and America, has died, his son said. He was 84.

Jackson, a protégé of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., had been hospitalized in recent months and was under observation for progressive supranuclear palsy. He died Tuesday morning, surrounded by his family, according to a statement from his nonprofit social justice organization, the Rainbow PUSH Coalition.

“His unwavering commitment to justice, equality, and human rights helped shape a global movement for freedom and dignity. A tireless change agent, he elevated the voices of the voiceless – from his Presidential campaigns in the 1980s to mobilizing millions to register to vote – leaving an indelible mark on history,” the statement read.

Jackson was what one pundit called “an American original.” He was born to an unwed teenage mom in Greenville, South Carolina, during the Jim Crow era but rose to become a civil rights icon and a groundbreaking politician who mounted two electrifying runs for the presidency in the 1980s.

Jackson’s dual bids for the Democratic presidential nomination inspired Black America and stunned political observers who marveled at his ability to draw White voters. He was a Black crossover figure long before Barack Obama hit the national stage.

Jackson first rose to national prominence in the 1960s as a close aide to the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. After King’s assassination in 1968, Jackson became one of the most transformative civil rights leaders in America — to the chagrin of some of King’s aides, who thought he was too brash.

But his Rainbow Coalition, a bold alliance of Blacks, Whites, Latinos, Asian Americans, Native Americans and LGBTQ people, helped pave the way for a more progressive Democratic Party.

“Our flag is red, white and blue, but our nation is a rainbow – red, yellow, brown, Black and White – and we’re all precious in God’s sight,” Jackson once said.

One of Jackson’s signature phrases was “Keep hope alive.” He repeated it so often that some began to parody it, but it never seemed to lose meaning for him. He was a force for social justice over three eras: the Jim Crow period, the civil rights era and the post-civil rights era that culminated with the election of Obama and the Black Lives Matter movement.

Through his eloquence and singular drive, Jackson didn’t just keep hope alive for himself. His dream of a vibrant, multiracial America still inspires millions of Americans today.

Jackson’s vision remade the Democratic Party. He was the first presidential candidate to make support for gay rights a major part of his campaign platform, and he made a concerted effort to challenge the Democratic Party’s prioritization of White, moderate, middle-class voters, says David Masciotra, author of “I Am Somebody: Why Jesse Jackson Matters.

Adam Serwer

‪@adamserwer.bsky.social‬

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There’s no President Barack Obama without Jesse Jackson. It just doesn’t happen.
6:18 AM · Feb 17, 2026
https://bsky.app/profile/adamserwer.bsky.social/post/3mf2kckbt322d

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Posted in Black History, Breaking News, Civil Rights, Open Thread, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 16 Comments

Open Thread | Even With Their Fraudulence….They Can’t Hide The Nightmare of This Economy

Posted on February 16, 2026 by rikyrah

Will never let you forget:

HE INHERITED THE BEST ECONOMY IN THE WORLD FROM JOE BIDEN IN JANUARY 2025

Jared Ryan Sears
@JaredRyanSears
As Republicans try to spin today’s job report, the big takeaway is that last year was even worse than we were told.

In all of 2025, only 181,000 jobs were created. Biden averaged around ~235,000 per MONTH, not per year, throughout his presidency

And even in 2024, when job growth slowed from the previous years’ highs, it was still around 100,000 per month.

So ~100,000 average per month in 2024 to ~15,000 per month in 2025.

Unemployment:
Jan 2025: 4.0%
Jan 2026: 4.3%

Unemployed People:
Jan 2025: 6.9 million
Jan 2026: 7.4 million

Long-term Unemployed:
Jan 2025: 1.4 million
Jan 2026: 1.8 million

Trump and the Republican controlled Congress made everything worse.
9:48 AM · Feb 11, 2026
https://x.com/JaredRyanSears/status/2021612262499230113?s=20

Posted in Breaking News, Economy, GOP, Open Thread, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 25 Comments