Law of unintended consequences?
And, there are always a lot of players in GeoPolitics. Some we may never think of.
Shanaka Anslem Perera
@shanaka86Twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Today the number may be zero. Not because Iran mined the water. Not because a tanker was hit. Because Lloyd’s of London picked up the phone.
War risk underwriters began canceling policies for strait transits hours after Operation Epic Fury launched. The Financial Times confirmed premiums surging 50 percent. Baseline war risk sits at 0.25 percent of hull value. For a hundred million dollar tanker that is 250,000 dollars per voyage.At peak escalation rates, one million per transit. Vessels linked to American or Israeli interests are becoming uninsurable entirely. No price. No policy. No passage. The KHK Empress was loaded with Omani crude heading for Basra when it executed a U-turn mid-strait and redirected to India. The Eagle Veracruz halted at the western approach carrying two million barrels of Saudi crude bound for China. The Front Shanghai stopped off Sharjah with Iraqi crude destined for Rotterdam. Nippon Yusen ordered its entire fleet to avoid Hormuz. Greece told its merchant armada to reassess passage. Hapag-Lloyd suspended all transits.
None of them were fired upon. Every one of them got the same call. More than fifty million years ago the Arabian plate collided with the Eurasian plate and compressed the Persian Gulf into a basin that drains through a single geological bottleneck twenty one miles wide. Twenty one percent of global petroleum. Twenty percent of all seaborne LNG. One fifth of industrial civilization’s energy supply forced through a tectonic accident narrower than the English Channel, bordered on one side by the country whose supreme leader was killed yesterday morning. The USS Abraham Lincoln carries enough Tomahawks to sink every IRGC patrol boat in 48 hours. Operation Praying Mantis crippled Iran’s operational naval forces in eight hours in 1988. The Fifth Fleet has rehearsed this scenario for decades.
None of that matters. Aircraft carriers cannot force an underwriter to rewrite a policy. Tomahawks cannot lower a premium. The most powerful navy in human history cannot make a Lloyd’s syndicate decide that a VLCC transiting Iranian coastal waters represents an acceptable risk on a Saturday afternoon when missiles are landing in Dubai. Goldman Sachs estimates Brent could peak at 110 dollars per barrel. JP Morgan projects 120 to 130. At those levels every airline bleeds cash. Every central bank watches three years of inflation fighting reignite overnight. Bypass pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE handle roughly three million barrels. Hormuz handles twenty million. The math does not close.
Iran figured out something the Pentagon still has not.
You do not need to close a strait. You just need to make it uninsurable.
https://open.substack.com/pub/shanakaanslemperera/p/the-arithmetic-of-collapse-irans?r=6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2027936080541131106?s=20
UPDATE
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
@adamscochran
Holy Shit!Hapag-Lloyd more than doubling *all* girl shipping costs.
An extra $15M-$30M+ per ship anywhere in the Gulf, depending on size.
Normally the price is $20M for a full ship, now it will be almost $50M after surcharges.
That doesn’t account for the extra coverage needed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Absolutely brutal.
https://x.com/adamscochran/status/2028231012736713123?s=20
Marc Elias
@marcelias.bsky.social
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The next Big Lie is to taking shape right in front of us. Donald Trump will try to use this to assert illegal and unconstitutional powers over the 2026 elections.
https://bsky.app/profile/marcelias.bsky.social/post/3mfwl2dgazk2q
Tareq Alotaiba طارق العتيبة
@justatareq
In the past 24 hours alone, the #UAE downed 20 ballistic missiles and 311 drones from #Iran. This war has turned the UAE into a gold standard for comprehensive air defences.
https://x.com/justatareq/status/2028172277745906145?s=20
Shalom Lipner
@ShalomLipner
.
@AnwarGargash
, senior diplomatic advisor to UAE President
@MohamedBinZayed
calls on Iran to “come to [its] senses,” saying that its escalation gives credence to charges that Iran is the “primary source of danger to the region.”
https://x.com/ShalomLipner/status/2028137808938897912?s=20
Brian Krassenstein
@krassenstein
BREAKING: Newly released clip of Donald Trump partying at Mar-a-Lago, dancing with his wealthy millionaire and billionaire friends within HOURS of the United States beginning an attack on Iran, including killing young children. Historians will look back on this and wonder how this ever came about.
https://x.com/krassenstein/status/2027834590703046817?s=20
Sam Stein
@samstein
New Trump video, says US has hit 100s of targets, knocked out 9 ships, took out Khamenei. Also says combat operations will continue to all objectives are achieved. no timeline. Says there “will likely be more” U.S. deaths. “That’s the way it is.”
https://x.com/samstein/status/2028220498065183213?s=20
U.S. Central Command
@CENTCOM
CENTCOM Update TAMPA, Fla. – As of 9:30 am ET, March 1, three U.S. service members have been killed in action and five are seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury. Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions — and are in the process of being returned to duty. Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The situation is fluid, so out of respect for the families, we will withhold additional information, including the identities of our fallen warriors, until 24 hours after next of kin have been notified.
8:49 AM · Mar 1, 2026
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2028120499964805297?s=20
The Hollywood Reporter
@THR
“You want to celebrate our art, but you won’t protect it.” – Jayme Lawson calls out the #BAFTAs slip up at the #NAACPImageAwards
Rain Drops Media
@Raindropsmedia1
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski goes viral after seeming reluctant to eat his own burgers—he takes a tiny bite, looks uncomfortable, and calls the food ‘product.’
https://x.com/Raindropsmedia1/status/2027949351360675882?s=20
@SenMarkKelly
The Senate needs to vote immediately on Tim Kaine’s War Powers Resolution. I’m voting yes, because it’s clear that Trump has no plan to avoid escalation into a wider conflict that puts more servicemembers in harm’s way.
11:53 AM · Mar 1, 2026
https://x.com/SenMarkKelly/status/2028166627015934025?s=20
May they get their Karma for being cruel to him.
MLFootball
@MLFootball
REMINDER There have been people MOCKING Texas A&M WR KC Concepcion for the way he speaks at the #NFL combine. KC speaks like this because he has a speech impediment and has been stuttering his whole life. It is admirable how gets up there and speaks:
https://x.com/MLFootball/status/2027926393112183281?s=20
Lawrence Tynes
@lt4kicks
He’s one of the best humans you will ever meet. Takes time for kids and all fans. He is vocal and intentional about helping others with speech impediments. The “people” mocking him can fuck off and watch him shine in life.
https://x.com/lt4kicks/status/2027934480443314195?s=20
WEST VIRGINIA?
Kyle Cheney
@kylecheney
NEW: Four federal judges have formed a firewall against ICE in West Virginia — and say they’ll punish state and federal officials if they continue detaining people in ways the court has ruled illegal and unconstitutional. https://politico.com/news/2026/03/01/west-virginia-immigration-rulings-00804575
https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/2028089451419775112?s=20
Shanaka Anslem Perera
@shanaka86
The United Arab Emirates is the most leveraged country on earth and almost nobody understands why. Eighty eight percent of its population are foreign nationals. Ten point four million people who hold passports that say India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Egypt, Britain, somewhere else. They are not citizens. They are residents. They chose to be there because the risk-adjusted return on their lives was positive. Better jobs. No income tax. Safety. The entire economic model of the UAE is a value proposition, and that value proposition has a denominator called security that just went to zero.
Emirates, the world’s largest international airline, has suspended all flights indefinitely. Etihad suspended until Monday. Singapore Airlines cancelled its Dubai service through March 7. United Airlines through March 4. More than eighteen hundred flights were cancelled on Saturday alone, another fourteen hundred on Sunday. Dubai International Airport, which handled over a hundred and twenty seven million passengers last year, is dark. A CNN verified video from inside the terminal shows a passenger in a blood-spattered shirt being told to go home. The UAE Ministry of Education has moved all schools to distance learning through Wednesday. Sharjah Airport is shut. Abu Dhabi Airport took a direct hit that killed a Pakistani national and wounded seven.
The UAE confirmed its air defenses intercepted one hundred and thirty seven ballistic missiles and two hundred and nine drones. Fourteen drones were not intercepted. Their debris fell on residential neighborhoods, hotel facades, port facilities, and according to multiple reports, a shopping center in Sharjah.
Here is what matters. When France gets bombed, the French stay because it is France. When Ukraine gets bombed, Ukrainians stay because it is Ukraine. When the UAE gets bombed, the ten million people who make up eighty eight percent of its population have a decision to make. And that decision has a very short fuse.
A country where nearly nine in ten residents can leave is not a nation in the traditional sense. It is a special economic zone with a flag. The moment the value proposition inverts, the population does not resist. It withdraws.
This is not a war of attrition. It is a bank run on a country. The deposits are human. There is no deposit insurance. And the withdrawal window just opened.
Schools are closed. Airports are closed. Flights are cancelled through next week. The residents of the world’s most ambitious urban experiment are sitting in underground parking garages because Dubai has no bomb shelters. Nobody models a bank run until it starts. https://open.substack.com/pub/shanakaanslemperera/p/the-arithmetic-of-collapse-irans?r=6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2028051580134834464?s=20
The Washington Post
@washingtonpost
Authorities said a man who fatally shot two people and wounded 14 others at a bar in Austin early Sunday may have been motivated by the U.S. military campaign in Iran. The gunman was identified as a 53-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen who came to the country from Senegal in 2006.
https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/2028206160378044590?s=20
Drop Site
@DropSiteNews
Rachel Maddow claims “it is the Gulf Arab states” that stand to benefit most from Iran being weakened. She said Gulf states “rented the services of the United States military to start a war that they want.” In a nearly 20-minute segment titled “Follow the MONEY,” Rachel Maddow mentioned Israel—which has publicly called for U.S.-led regime change in Iran—only twice. In that portion of the segment, she states:
“I mean, there’s a lot of attention on Israel and indeed Israel and the United States have worked together in the bombing campaign, not only the one that started today, but the campaign against Iran in June. But it is the Gulf Arab states who are arrayed against Iran, who want Iran removed as their regional rival. It is those countries that have been assiduously buying up members of the Trump family and the Trump administration with just astonishing amounts of cash in recent years, and particularly in recent months. And now for that low, low price, they appear to have rented the services of the United States military to start a war that they want, but that the American people do not.”
VIDEO: A clip from her MSNOW analysis
https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2028166192377061714?s=20
Dan Lamothe
@DanLamothe
Still no briefing at the Pentagon since Dec. 2. Not even for its replacement, right-wing press corps.
3:35 PM · Mar 1, 2026
https://x.com/DanLamothe/status/2028222598400585785?s=20
GOLIKEHELLMACHINE
@golikehellmachine.com
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like, i don’t think it’s conspiracy, it’s just how this administration does everything, utterly half-assed and ill-prepared, totally contemptuous of public opinion, subject to the whims of the elderly president and any number of scheming viziers, all of whom have different interests and goals
12:54 PM · Feb 28, 2026
https://bsky.app/profile/golikehellmachine.com/post/3mfwvlgvxnk2p
GOLIKEHELLMACHINE
@golikehellmachine.com
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filming a hasty video in the dark at a golf resort while wearing a ball cap and releasing it on social media at 2AM then disappearing from view is one of those things that would make this seem like farce if there weren’t a very real and mounting death toll attached to it, it’s very surreal
https://bsky.app/profile/golikehellmachine.com/post/3mfwveqovds2p
The Associated Press
@apnews.com
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Key members of Congress are demanding a swift vote on a war powers resolution that would restrain President Donald Trump’s military attack on Iran unless the administration wins their approval for what they warn is a potentially illegal campaign.
https://bsky.app/profile/apnews.com/post/3mfxjoore7e2q
ArgellaStone
@argellastone.bsky.social
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One, very pathetic that they’re still desperately trying to recreate the Obama situation room photo. Two, Trump looks like he died last week and was badly preserved.
https://bsky.app/profile/argellastone.bsky.social/post/3mfx62trof22e
Chatham Harrison dba TRUMP DELENDUS EST
@chathamharrison.bsky.social
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This is what people mean when they say “this is not who we are”. It’s Midwestern police departments finding out even they have a limit. It’s everyday suburbanites funding transport & relocation for trans women in danger. It’s fighting to crush Republican supermajorities in red states this November.
https://bsky.app/profile/chathamharrison.bsky.social/post/3mfv2jvg7lk2p
isaac ☃️
@androgynyfiend.bsky.social
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the police department for the 2nd biggest city in kansas announced it won’t be enforcing the law that revoked trans people’s driver’s licenses today bc it would be ridiculous to enforce lol!!!!!!!!!
11:30 PM · Feb 26, 2026
Everybody can reply
https://bsky.app/profile/androgynyfiend.bsky.social/post/3mfsy76z7ws2s
Mark
@ferl67.bsky.social
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A children’s hospital is renamed for Dolly Parton and hopes to transform pediatric care in Tennessee apnews.com/article/doll…
https://bsky.app/profile/ferl67.bsky.social/post/3mfsmxcpnj226
The Mayor of New York City hit a good one with the street shoveling hiring of regular New Yorkers. Those sidewalks have never looked so clean. And, I don’t just mean the Upper East and West Sides. New Yorkers walk everywhere, so having clean sidewalks after a snow blizzard is very important. People not mad about the hourly rate paid when they can walk the streets and not worry about slipping and sliding. It was good government.
Good morning!
Morning🤗
Good Morning, Everyone😊😊😊