The Cost of Chaos: This is Getting Scary
And it’s all on Donald Trump
Paul Krugman
Apr 09, 2025
Herbert Hoover, move over.
The 31st president has long been the patron saint of bad economic management. But while Hoover responded badly to the coming of the Great Depression, he didn’t cause the slump. By contrast, it seems more and more likely that Donald Trump will single-handedly push the solid economy he inherited into crisis. This is, as Trump might say, disastrous policy like nobody has seen before.
How is he managing that feat? While the vast majority of economists think high tariffs are bad policy, they don’t normally associate them with recession. Many, perhaps most economists who’ve looked hard at the evidence don’t accept the popular story that the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 caused the Great Depression.
But this time looks and feels different. Why is a Trump Slump brought on by tariffs looking more probable by the day?
Like many others, I’ve been talking a lot about the huge uncertainty Trump is creating. Ignore the desperate efforts to retcon Trump’s trade policy, to pretend that it comes out of some coherent economic doctrine. We’re clearly looking at tariffs driven by id, not ideology — Trump’s biggest motivation seems to be the desire to see other countries grovel. Because there’s no clear policy objective, nobody knows what Trump will do tomorrow, let alone over the next few years. Did you have 104 percent tariffs on China and 34 percent tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber on your dance card? (Are 2x4s the industry of the future?)
As I wrote a few days ago,
Permanent tariffs are bad for the economy, but businesses can, for the most part, find a way to live with them. What business can’t deal with is a regime under which trade policy reflects the whims of a mad king, where nobody knows what tariffs will be next week, let alone over the next five years. Are these tariffs going to be permanent? Are they a negotiating ploy? The administration can’t even get its talking points straight, with top officials saying that tariffs aren’t up for negotiation only to be undercut by Trump a few hours later.
Under these conditions, how is a business supposed to make investments, or any kind of long-term commitment? Everyone is going to sit on their hands, waiting for clarity that may never come.
But wait, there’s more. There are growing signs that we’re at risk of a tariff-induced financial crisis.
There are multiple indicators of that risk. Bear with me while I give a somewhat wonkish explanation of one indicator that really caught my eye.
Back in the good old days, that is, two weeks ago, the main concern about Trump’s tariffs was that they would cause sustained inflation. We knew that they would produce at least a temporary bump in consumer prices, but the big question — crucial for Federal Reserve policy — was whether this bump would lead to a sustained rise in expected inflation, and become entrenched in the economy.
That’s what happened in the 1970s and is the reason getting inflation down in the 1980s required years of high unemployment. It didn’t happen during the Biden years, which is why this time we were able to get inflation way down without a recession.
…………………………………
And here’s the thing: Lenders will be hurt if some borrowers are forced into default, even if others are doing well, because lenders don’t share in the upside. So even though stock prices are dominating the headlines, the real, scary action is in the bond market. The nightmare scenario, which we saw play out in 2008, is that falling asset prices cause a scramble for cash, which leads to fire sales that drive prices even lower, and the whole system implodes. Suddenly, that scenario doesn’t look impossible.
Maybe we’ll steer away from the edge of the abyss. But Trumponomics has already proved worse than even its harshest critics imagined, and the worst may be yet to come.
WHAT.THEE.ENTIRE.PHUCK.
Like there isn’t an entire population that has been living there for longer than America has been America.
Exclusive: Greenland ‘Freedom City’? Rich donors push Trump for a tech hub up north
By Rachael Levy and Alexandra Ulmer
April 10, 202512:45 PM CDTUpdated 17 hours ago
April 10 (Reuters) – As the Trump administration intensifies efforts to acquire Greenland from Denmark — or take it by force — some Silicon Valley tech investors are promoting the frozen island as a site for a so-called freedom city, a libertarian utopia with minimal corporate regulation, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
The discussions are in early stages, but the idea has been taken seriously by Trump’s pick for Denmark ambassador, Ken Howery, who is expected to be confirmed by Congress in the coming months and lead Greenland-acquisition negotiations, the people said. Howery, whose involvement with the idea hasn’t been previously reported, once co-founded a venture-capital firm with tech billionaire Peter Thiel, a leading advocate for such low-regulation cities. Howery is also a longtime friend of Elon Musk, a top Trump advisor.
Howery declined to comment. The White House did not respond to requests for comment. Sources who spoke to Reuters requested anonymity to discuss private conversations.
The vision for Greenland, one of the people said, could include a hub for artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, space launches, micro nuclear reactors and high-speed rail.
The discussions reflect a longstanding Silicon Valley movement to establish low-regulation cities globally, including in the United States, which Trump himself promised to do in a 2023 campaign video. Proponents use different names for variations on the idea, including startup cities or charter cities, with the common goal of spurring innovation through sweeping regulatory exemptions.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greenland-freedom-city-rich-donors-push-trump-tech-hub-up-north-2025-04-10/
Mortgage rates surge over 7% as tariffs hit bond market
Published Fri, Apr 11 20251:55 PM EDTUpdated 12 Min Ago
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage surged 13 basis points Friday to 7.1%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That’s the highest rate since mid-February.
Mortgage rates have been on a roller coaster ride all week, as bond yields spiked higher mid-week when President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on dozens of countries went into effect. Yields dropped when Trump lowered the tariff rate on most countries hours later. Tariffs on Chinese imports, however, currently stand at 145%.
But bonds began selling off again Friday, despite a cooler-than-expected inflation report. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury.
“There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who’s alive to read these words, but unless your career began before 1981, you just lived through the worst week you’ve ever seen in terms of the jump in 10-year yields,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/mortgage-rates-surge-tariffs-bond-market.html
Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) posted at 10:05 PM on Thu, Apr 10, 2025:
BREAKING: Asian markets are waking up, and it looks like a full-blown gold rush.
That vertical candle? It’s not a glitch. It’s what happens when investors start dumping dollar-denominated assets and run for safety.
Gold just spiked $37 in minutes, now trading above $3,213/oz. That’s a 1.16% move after hours—a massive jump that screams panic hedging.
This isn’t normal market churn. This is a flashing neon sign that confidence in the dollar is cracking.
https://t.co/FAghKEcnZd
(https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1910529534459285520?t=-el23NYNDHBFocWzg7CrtQ&s=03)
Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) posted at 1:35 PM on Fri, Apr 11, 2025:
A Delaware judge has ruled that right-wing cable channel Newsmax made defamatory statements about Dominion Voting Systems when it lied about the 2020 election results.
Judge Eric Davis says the case will now proceed to a trial by jury.
(https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1910763610072138062?s=03)
Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) posted at 1:33 PM on Fri, Apr 11, 2025:
“Trump did this by executive order, with photo op…This isn’t just about punishing Krebs and Taylor — it’s a message to everyone who might consider “crossing” him. We often say this is how authoritarianism begins. Well, this is what authoritarianism is.”
https://t.co/LdbYs70YmI
(https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1910763090536169524?s=03)
Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) posted at 11:11 AM on Fri, Apr 11, 2025:
Jamie Dimon now saying he expects the Fed to have to step in and rescue the bond market.
Unprecedented times.
We had +3% real GDP a quarter ago. https://t.co/KQosKC3UhY
(https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1910727328923004997?s=03)
CNN (@CNN) posted at 11:54 AM on Fri, Apr 11, 2025:
The Trump administration plans to eliminate the research arm of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, close all weather and climate labs and eviscerate its budget along with several other NOAA offices, according to internal documents obtained by CNN
(https://x.com/CNN/status/1910738242497900659?s=03)
ADAM (@AdameMedia) posted at 3:11 AM on Fri, Apr 11, 2025:
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇦🇺 China has just HALTED all liquified natural gas imports from the United States.
This leaves tankers in limbo with BILLIONS of dollars of contracts.
China will now go with Australia for their natural gas needs instead.
Australian is inking new deals throughout Asia and may soon turn to Europe and cut American gas out of the picture entirely.
Trump has turned Australia from an ally into a competitor.
https://t.co/l2eOvZiy4L
(https://x.com/AdameMedia/status/1910606663289106722?s=03)
Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) posted at 6:42 PM on Wed, Apr 09, 2025:
Remember the big presser where Pam Bondi, Kash Patel and others announced charges against a prominent MS-13 leader? They appear to be dropping the case and seeking a quick deportation instead.
In a bizarre twist, the defendant is asking the court NOT to dismiss the case because he’s worried it will lead to a summary deportation without due process.
Stranger still, the magistrate presiding over the case ordered the defendant, Henrry Villatoro Santos, detained pending trial because of the strength of the evidence and likelihood of a lengthy sentence.
Unclear why DOJ changed court so abruptly on a case of such significance.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
https://t.co/zRwSWPqJEo
(https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/1910116068070510767?s=03)
Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) posted at 10:08 AM on Fri, Apr 11, 2025:
Yikes. “Consumers have spiraled from anxious to petrified,” says Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Consumer sentiment plunged again in April. The expectations index is the worst since May 1980 (the stagflation era), according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.
Americans https://t.co/wQFy158x8V
(https://x.com/byHeatherLong/status/1910711595732181461?t=HQUNivEk_GNMD_NuMgcGlA&s=03)
PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes) posted at 6:05 PM on Wed, Apr 09, 2025:
White House “Coal Miner” Is Actually a Supervisor for a Company That Recently Laid Off 165
Zachary Erdeljac wore a red MAGA hard hat, safety gear and praised Trump’s tariffs
https://t.co/RoWnl1In0s
(https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1910106764210565164?s=03)
Michelle_BYoung (@michelle_byoung) posted at 8:00 AM on Fri, Apr 11, 2025:
The almost exclusive focus on STEM has lead to tech bros who understand nothing of history, the humanities, or basic ethics running the world on their very limited terms & corrupt worldview 🤷🏾♀️
(https://x.com/michelle_byoung/status/1910679433628860618?t=y6vZHGKTgLLfNqE759NF9Q&s=03)
The United States versus Elon R. Musk (@Needle_of_Arya) posted at 10:24 AM on Fri, Apr 11, 2025:
I’ve talked about this.
the tech bro generation, 1946-89, has brought us here, with their sociopathy, their hatred of the humanities (at university), their desire to recreate the Middle Ages through technoserfdom
(https://x.com/Needle_of_Arya/status/1910715566337454315?s=03)
Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) posted at 10:07 PM on Thu, Apr 10, 2025:
What Trump is doing with his tariff war:
1. Alienating every nation in the world.
2. Destroying the US economy.
3. Driving the global economy into recession.
4. Killing the big US trading companies such as Apple, producing 90% of its iPhones in China.
(https://x.com/anders_aslund/status/1910530180092682707?t=WaD-4xIIzJAu4anGsZ2gaw&s=03)
With many career lawyers gone, Justice Dept. hires Trump loyalists for court
The Justice Department is building a roster of lawyers willing to defend in court the most controversial parts of President Donald Trump’s agenda, firing career attorneys whom leaders view as standing in their way and hiring dozens of political appointees to carry out the president’s agenda.
The new hires are already appearing on behalf of the government to defend Trump’s efforts to remake immigration policy and the federal workforce and to expand the powers of the presidency. They sometimes sit in front of judges alone, without the cadre of veteran attorneys who typically show up for big cases.
more here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/04/10/justice-trump-political-hires-lawyers-court/
THEE ENTIRE PHUCK!!!!
Jon Cooper
@joncoopertweets
OUTRAGEOUS: Trump’s Social Security Administration will be shifting its public communication exclusively to Twitter (gosh — I wonder whose idea that was?). This comes as the agency plans to cut its regional office workforce by roughly 90 percent.
https://x.com/joncoopertweets/status/1910758140905422940
BWA HA HA AH AH HA HA HA HA HA HA
Mario 🇺🇸🇵🇱🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@PawlowskiMario) posted at 11:17 PM on Thu, Apr 10, 2025:
This is HUGE😳
BREAKING🇨🇳: Tesla suspends taking orders for Model S and Model X in China
→ Tesla is probably DONE in China.
This isn’t about “demand adjustments” or “supply chain.” This is China quietly killing off Tesla without saying it out loud.
Why?
1.China is protecting BYD and its EV industry.
2.Tesla became a Western pawn in a trade war.
3.Chinese buyers don’t trust instability – tariffs, Trump, Elon’s chaos — it’s poison in their market.
4.And this → European Union cutting tariffs on Chinese EVs? China doesn’t need Tesla anymore.
→ Tesla’s future = Europe squeezed by Mercedes, BMW EVs.
→ China = dominated by BYD and local brands.
→ U.S. = hostile market with trade war uncertainty.
Musk played both sides for too long. China just reminded him — they control the board, not him.
(https://x.com/PawlowskiMario/status/1910547762774520125?t=r-RpcrS-p1GaD48W–I79Q&s=03)
RIDICULOUS
Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) posted at 1:49 PM on Thu, Apr 10, 2025:
The White House is considering using our tax dollars to give $10,000 per year to every person in Greenland https://t.co/azWevfzv9p
(https://x.com/jonfavs/status/1910404754762854507?t=FyaOuzkM39kTihqJdpyesA&s=03)
scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) posted at 0:56 PM on Thu, Apr 10, 2025:
The media demanded 100 page white paper level policy proposals from Kamala Harris but Trump doesn’t even know the amount of tariff tax he is levying against (checks notes) our biggest trading partner, and it’s crickets. Don’t get me started on how Joe Biden would be portrayed 🙄 https://t.co/IDkbp1KQ4q
(https://x.com/scarylawyerguy/status/1910391575089193445?t=Dq_LJTHTKqI9Pd0uscKYPg&s=03)
Say it for those in the bleacher seats
James F. Love IV (@JamesFLoveIV) posted at 10:11 AM on Thu, Apr 10, 2025:
I’m going to say this again, and all of you need to think about it for a few minutes:
60% OF NURSING HOME’S INCOME COMES FROM MEDICAID.
https://t.co/McHk4Z0qxG https://t.co/Sz9fPfsgUy
(https://x.com/JamesFLoveIV/status/1910349916301295918?t=3fjs19_mocFpB4lBR34ocg&s=03)
Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) posted at 11:29 AM on Wed, Apr 09, 2025:
Rand Paul just blasted House Republicans for passing a rule blocking a privileged vote on tariffs:
“They have passed a rule saying that, you know, not that day is night, but the days don’t exist at all, that we aren’t going to have any calendar days, because miraculously, by rule, we have decreed there are no days.
“I think that is insulting, but it’s also, you got to wonder whether or not it’s actually lawful for a rule to overturn a law.”
(https://x.com/igorbobic/status/1910007210694029620?t=zCaa2OS2GgQhsjYaUYUu-g&s=03)
Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) posted at 10:12 PM on Thu, Apr 10, 2025:
Marjorie Taylor Greene walked into Congress worth $700K. Today? $22 million.
She didn’t invent anything. She didn’t build a company. She didn’t launch a fund. She passed zero major legislation.
But she did buy stocks before they bounced, cash in on tariff panic, and rake in donor dollars while yelling on TV.
Oh—and she owns more than half of a construction company back home in Georgia.
(https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1910531419329220721?t=I0iZMCXHGSRmrJh0vOYEZQ&s=03)
Qondi (@QondiNtini) posted at 10:08 PM on Thu, Apr 10, 2025:
2️⃣ Important votes happened today in the House and based on my mentions folks are confused about who voted for what…
2️⃣1️⃣6️⃣ Republicans voted for the budget resolution gutting Medicaid, SNAP and Veterans’ Benefits
2️⃣1️⃣6️⃣ Republicans voted for the SAVE Act gutting voting rights https://t.co/Tfmn6VtAlt
(https://x.com/QondiNtini/status/1910530336070545592?t=hOmHbaIJjbLcE2Y-PD2zJA&s=03)
Good Morning Everyone 😊😊😊